UEFA Nations League

Sweden vs Poland Odds Movement Analysis | UEFA Nations League | 168 Tips

Sweden
VS
PolandPoland
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-09-28 20:57:48
Pre Match High Freq Until Kickoff
Stake Stake BetWinner BetWinner 1xBet 1xBet

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 0.01 +0.25 7.69
Over Under 7.69 4.5 0.01
Europe 2.03 | 3.67 | 3.41
Probability 46.5% | 25.8% | 27.7%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Moving
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
Handicap, European Odds are aligned toward the away side. Evidence Label: 1.91 → 2.03
Market State Agreement
Mixed
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Over Under · Europe · Probability
Market State Evidence
3
Market Signals Title
🔴 Handicap down ★★★☆☆🔴 Home price up ★★★☆☆🟢 Total up ★★★★★
Supporting Signals Title
Handicap down-0.5 → 02026-09-28 19:22:40★★★☆☆Home price up1.91 → 2.032026-09-28 19:22:40★★★☆☆
Independent Market Signals Title
Total up2.5 → 2.5/32026-09-28 19:22:40★★★★★
Strength Label ★★★☆☆ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match High Freq Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-09-28 20:57:48

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Key Movements Title

5
09-28 05:39Away price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line09-28 09:48Away price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line09-28 02:38Away price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line09-27 14:06Away price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line09-28 05:39Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleA large downward handicap change was recorded from the opening line.
History Title
09-24 21:490.90 -0.5 0.92Opening
09-27 14:060.84 -0.25 1.04Down Line
09-28 09:481.04 -0.5 0.85Up Line
09-28 19:221.00 0 0.88Down Line
09-28 20:570.01 +0.25 7.69Down Line
0.013.857.691712Home WaterAway Water+0.25
Timeline Title
09-24 21:49 Opening
-0.5
09-27 14:06
-0.25
09-28 09:48
-0.5
09-28 19:22
0
09-28 20:57
+0.25
09-28 20:57 Latest
+0.25
12
Record Count
4
Change Count
1
Up Count
3
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleThe Over/Under line moved up materially from the opening position.
History Title
09-24 21:490.90 2.5 0.90Opening
09-26 13:460.92 2.5/3 0.88Up Line
09-28 20:577.69 4.5 0.01Up Line
0.013.857.691712OverUnder4.5
Timeline Title
09-24 21:49 Opening
2.5（0.90 / 0.90）
09-26 13:46
2.5/3（0.92 / 0.88）
09-28 20:57
4.5（7.69 / 0.01）
09-28 20:57 Latest
4.5（7.69 / 0.01）
12
Record Count
2
Change Count
2
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Europe

Of
Comment TitleA small upward change in the home-win price was recorded.
History Title
09-24 21:491.91 / 3.52 / 3.78Opening
09-27 14:062.05 / 3.58 / 3.32Home Odds Up
09-28 12:532.01 / 3.68 / 3.46Away Odds Up
09-28 16:041.93 / 3.74 / 3.67Away Odds Up
09-28 19:222.03 / 3.67 / 3.41Home Odds Up
09-28 20:572.03 / 3.67 / 3.41No Change
1.912.843.781712HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
09-24 21:49 Opening
1.91 / 3.52 / 3.78
09-27 14:06
2.05 / 3.58 / 3.32
09-28 12:53
2.01 / 3.68 / 3.46
09-28 16:04
1.93 / 3.74 / 3.67
09-28 19:22
2.03 / 3.67 / 3.41
09-28 20:57 Latest
2.03 / 3.67 / 3.41
12
Record Count
4
Change Count
2
Home Odds Change
2
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleNo significant win-probability movement recorded yet.
History Title
09-24 21:4948.8% / 26.5% / 24.7%Opening
09-27 14:0645.7% / 26.1% / 28.2%Home Prob Down
09-28 20:5746.5% / 25.8% / 27.7%No Change
24.736.949.01712Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
09-24 21:49 Opening
48.83%
09-27 14:06
45.66%
09-28 20:57 Latest
46.55%
12
Record Count
1
Change Count
-2.28%
Home Prob Cumulative
±3.37%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
★★★★★

Title

Count Suffix
09-28 19:22
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 3.04 points to 27.71% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 19:22
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.28 points to 46.55% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 19:22
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.78 to 3.41 (-9.8%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-28 19:22
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.91 to 2.03 (+6.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-28 19:22
🔴Handicap down★★☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 0.5 to 0, down 2 steps (0.5 goals) from opening - market momentum fading.
09-28 19:22
🟢Total up★★☆☆☆
O/U line moved from 2.5 to 2.5/3, up 0.25 goals from opening - goal expectation slightly higher.
09-28 12:53
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.64 points to 27.31% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 12:53
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.78 to 3.46 (-8.5%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-28 12:53
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.91 to 2.01 (+5.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-28 09:48
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 4.23 points to 28.9% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 09:48
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.83 points to 45.0% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 09:48
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.78 to 3.27 (-13.5%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-28 09:48
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.91 to 2.1 (+9.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-28 05:39
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 4.59 points to 29.26% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 05:39
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 4.18 points to 44.65% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 05:39
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.78 to 3.22 (-14.8%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-28 05:39
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 1.91 to 2.11 (+10.5%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-28 05:39
🔴Handicap down★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 0.5 to 0/0.5, down 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward away side.
09-28 02:38
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 3.9 points to 28.57% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 02:38
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.73 points to 45.1% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 02:38
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.78 to 3.3 (-12.7%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-28 02:38
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.91 to 2.09 (+9.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 14:06
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 3.52 points to 28.19% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 14:06
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.17 points to 45.66% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 14:06
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.78 to 3.32 (-12.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-27 14:06
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.91 to 2.05 (+7.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-26 13:46
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.78 to 3.66 (-3.2%) - away side attracting more attention.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
09-24 21:49
Opening RecordOpening Short
09-26 13:46
Over Under Up LineOver Under
09-27 14:06
Handicap Down LineHandicap
09-27 14:06
Europe Home Odds UpEurope
09-27 14:06
Prob Change PrefixHome Prob DownProbability
09-28 09:48
Handicap Up LineHandicap
09-28 12:53
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
09-28 16:04
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
09-28 19:22
Handicap Down LineHandicap
09-28 19:22
Europe Home Odds UpEurope
09-28 20:57
Handicap Down LineHandicap
09-28 20:57
Over Under Up LineOver Under

Overview Stats Title

4
Handicap Changes
2
Ou Changes
4
Odds Changes
1
Prob Changes
12
Total Records
5Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
High Freq
Monitor Level
Pre Match High Freq
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
09-24
09-25
09-26
09-27
09-28
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