UEFA Nations League

Spain vs Croatia Odds Movement Analysis | UEFA Nations League | 168 Tips

SpainSpain
VS
CroatiaCroatia
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-09-29 20:53:16
Pre Match High Freq Until Kickoff
Stake Stake BetWinner BetWinner 1xBet 1xBet

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 7.69 -0.25 0.02
Over Under 7.69 5.5 0.02
Europe 1.22 | 6.89 | 11.73
Probability 78.1% | 13.8% | 8.1%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Conflicted
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
European Odds, Implied Probability indicate movement toward the home side, while Handicap indicate movement toward the away side. Evidence Label: 1.29 → 1.21
Market State Agreement
Conflicting
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Over Under · Europe · Probability
Market State Evidence
3
Market Signals Title
🟢 Home price down ★★★☆☆🟢 Home win prob. up ★★★☆☆🟢 Total up ★★★★★
Conflict Neutral Note
Conflicting Signals Title
Home price down1.29 → 1.212026-09-29 18:35:36★★★☆☆Home win prob. up72.69 → 78.492026-09-29 18:35:36★★★☆☆
Independent Market Signals Title
Total up2.5/3 → 3/3.52026-09-29 18:35:36★★★★★
Strength Label ★★★☆☆ Signals are split across markets. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match High Freq Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-09-29 20:53:16

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Key Movements Title

5
09-29 02:56Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-28 14:46Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-28 02:39Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-27 01:55Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-27 14:07Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleThe observed handicap moved materially lower than the opening position.
History Title
09-24 21:500.83 -1.5 0.99Opening
09-26 13:470.91 -1.75 0.91Up Line
09-28 14:460.95 -2 0.93Up Line
09-29 18:350.90 -1.75 0.99Down Line
09-29 20:537.69 -0.25 0.02Down Line
0.023.857.691713Home WaterAway Water-0.25
Timeline Title
09-24 21:50 Opening
-1.5
09-26 13:47
-1.75
09-28 14:46
-2
09-29 18:35
-1.75
09-29 20:53
-0.25
09-29 20:53 Latest
-0.25
13
Record Count
4
Change Count
2
Up Count
2
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleThe Over/Under line moved up materially from the opening position.
History Title
09-24 21:500.81 2.5/3 0.99Opening
09-26 13:470.92 3 0.88Up Line
09-28 14:461.01 3/3.5 0.87Up Line
09-29 20:537.69 5.5 0.02Up Line
0.023.857.691713OverUnder5.5
Timeline Title
09-24 21:50 Opening
2.5/3（0.81 / 0.99）
09-26 13:47
3（0.92 / 0.88）
09-28 14:46
3/3.5（1.01 / 0.87）
09-29 20:53
5.5（7.69 / 0.02）
09-29 20:53 Latest
5.5（7.69 / 0.02）
13
Record Count
3
Change Count
3
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Europe

Of
Comment TitleA small downward change in the home-win price was recorded.
History Title
09-24 21:501.29 / 5.35 / 9.58Opening
09-26 13:471.25 / 5.96 / 10.32Away Odds Up
09-27 01:551.20 / 6.68 / 12.53Away Odds Up
09-29 08:181.21 / 6.86 / 11.98Away Odds Down
09-29 20:531.22 / 6.89 / 11.73No Change
1.197.1313.11713HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
09-24 21:50 Opening
1.29 / 5.35 / 9.58
09-26 13:47
1.25 / 5.96 / 10.32
09-27 01:55
1.20 / 6.68 / 12.53
09-29 08:18
1.21 / 6.86 / 11.98
09-29 20:53 Latest
1.22 / 6.89 / 11.73
13
Record Count
3
Change Count
0
Home Odds Change
3
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleA small upward change in home implied probability was recorded.
History Title
09-24 21:5072.7% / 17.5% / 9.8%Opening
09-27 01:5578.4% / 14.1% / 7.5%Home Prob Up
09-29 20:5378.1% / 13.8% / 8.1%No Change
7.2343.379.41713Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
09-24 21:50 Opening
72.69%
09-27 01:55
78.41%
09-29 20:53 Latest
78.06%
13
Record Count
1
Change Count
+5.37%
Home Prob Cumulative
±3.27%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
★★★★★

Title

Count Suffix
09-29 18:35
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 5.8 points to 78.49% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-29 18:35
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 12.01 (+25.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-29 18:35
🟢Handicap up★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 1.5/2, up 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward home side.
09-29 18:35
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.29 to 1.21 (-6.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-29 18:35
🟢Total up★★★☆☆
O/U line moved from 2.5/3 to 3/3.5, up 0.5 goals from opening - goal expectation rising notably.
09-29 15:10
🔴Away win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 2.09 points to 7.7% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-29 15:10
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 5.97 points to 78.66% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-29 15:10
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 12.36 (+29.0%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-29 15:10
🟢Handicap up★★☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 2, up 2 steps (0.5 goals) from opening - market backing home side strongly.
09-29 11:42
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 5.63 points to 78.32% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-29 11:42
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 12.04 (+25.7%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-29 08:18
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 5.59 points to 78.28% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-29 08:18
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 11.98 (+25.1%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-29 02:56
🔴Away win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 2.56 points to 7.23% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-29 02:56
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 6.75 points to 79.44% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-29 02:56
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 13.07 (+36.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-29 02:56
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.29 to 1.19 (-7.8%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-28 14:46
🔴Away win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 2.49 points to 7.3% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 14:46
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 6.48 points to 79.17% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 14:46
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 12.91 (+34.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-28 02:39
🔴Away win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 2.33 points to 7.46% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 02:39
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 6.09 points to 78.78% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-28 02:39
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 12.68 (+32.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-28 02:39
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.29 to 1.2 (-7.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-28 02:39
🟢Total up★★☆☆☆
O/U line moved from 2.5/3 to 3, up 0.25 goals from opening - goal expectation slightly higher.
09-28 02:39
🟢Handicap up★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 1.5/2, up 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward home side.
09-27 14:07
🔴Away win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 2.24 points to 7.55% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 14:07
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 5.86 points to 78.55% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 14:07
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 12.48 (+30.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 01:55
🔴Away win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 2.28 points to 7.51% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 01:55
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 5.72 points to 78.41% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 01:55
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 12.53 (+30.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-26 13:47
🟢Home win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 2.45 points to 75.14% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-26 13:47
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 9.58 to 10.32 (+7.7%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-26 13:47
🟢Home price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.29 to 1.25 (-3.1%) - away side attracting more attention.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
09-24 21:50
Opening RecordOpening Short
09-26 13:47
Handicap Up LineHandicap
09-26 13:47
Over Under Up LineOver Under
09-26 13:47
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
09-27 01:55
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
09-27 01:55
Prob Change PrefixHome Prob UpProbability
09-28 14:46
Handicap Up LineHandicap
09-28 14:46
Over Under Up LineOver Under
09-29 08:18
Europe Away Odds DownEurope
09-29 18:35
Handicap Down LineHandicap
09-29 20:53
Handicap Down LineHandicap
09-29 20:53
Over Under Up LineOver Under

Overview Stats Title

4
Handicap Changes
3
Ou Changes
3
Odds Changes
1
Prob Changes
13
Total Records
6Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
High Freq
Monitor Level
Pre Match High Freq
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
09-24
09-25
09-26
09-27
09-28
09-29
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