UEFA Nations League

Serbia vs Netherlands Odds Movement Analysis | UEFA Nations League | 168 Tips

SerbiaSerbia
VS
NetherlandsNetherlands
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-09-27 16:17:48
Pre Match Monitoring Until Kickoff

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 0.78 +1 1.12
Over Under 0.93 2.5 0.95
Europe 6.81 | 4.93 | 1.42
Probability 13.9% | 19.2% | 66.8%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Moving
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
European Odds, Implied Probability both indicate movement toward the away side. Evidence Label: 5.16 → 7.42
Market State Agreement
Mixed
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Over Under · Europe · Probability
Market State Evidence
2
Market Signals Title
🔴 Home price up ★★★★★🔴 Home win prob. down ★★☆☆☆
Supporting Signals Title
Home price up5.16 → 7.422026-09-27 13:00:50★★★★★Home win prob. down18.15 → 12.82026-09-27 13:00:50★★☆☆☆
Strength Label ★★★★★ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match Monitoring Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-09-27 16:17:48

Key Movements Title

5
09-27 03:26Home price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-27 00:16Home price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-27 13:00Home price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-26 13:36Home price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-27 09:47Home price up★★★★★Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleNo significant handicap movement recorded yet.
History Title
09-24 21:420.78 +1 1.04Opening
09-25 16:260.85 +1.25 0.97Down Line
09-27 16:170.78 +1 1.12Up Line
0.780.951.12159Home WaterAway Water+1
Timeline Title
09-24 21:42 Opening
+1
09-25 16:26
+1.25
09-27 16:17
+1
09-27 16:17 Latest
+1
9
Record Count
2
Change Count
1
Up Count
1
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleNo significant total (over/under) movement recorded yet.
History Title
09-24 21:420.85 2.5 0.95Opening
09-25 16:260.91 2.5/3 0.89Up Line
09-26 13:361.03 3 0.85Up Line
09-27 16:170.93 2.5 0.95Down Line
0.780.951.11159OverUnder2.5
Timeline Title
09-24 21:42 Opening
2.5（0.85 / 0.95）
09-25 16:26
2.5/3（0.91 / 0.89）
09-26 13:36
3（1.03 / 0.85）
09-27 16:17
2.5（0.93 / 0.95）
09-27 16:17 Latest
2.5（0.93 / 0.95）
9
Record Count
3
Change Count
2
Up Count
1
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Europe

Of
Comment TitleThe home-win price moved up materially from the opening observation.
History Title
09-24 21:425.16 / 3.90 / 1.62Opening
09-25 16:266.77 / 4.58 / 1.44Home Odds Up
09-27 00:167.46 / 4.87 / 1.39Home Odds Up
09-27 06:436.71 / 4.78 / 1.43Home Odds Down
09-27 13:007.42 / 5.04 / 1.39Home Odds Up
09-27 16:176.81 / 4.93 / 1.42Home Odds Down
1.394.497.59159HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
09-24 21:42 Opening
5.16 / 3.90 / 1.62
09-25 16:26
6.77 / 4.58 / 1.44
09-27 00:16
7.46 / 4.87 / 1.39
09-27 06:43
6.71 / 4.78 / 1.43
09-27 13:00
7.42 / 5.04 / 1.39
09-27 16:17
6.81 / 4.93 / 1.42
09-27 16:17 Latest
6.81 / 4.93 / 1.42
9
Record Count
5
Change Count
5
Home Odds Change
0
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleA small downward change in home implied probability was recorded.
History Title
09-24 21:4218.1% / 24.0% / 57.8%Opening
09-25 16:2613.9% / 20.6% / 65.5%Home Prob Down
09-27 16:1713.9% / 19.2% / 66.8%No Change
12.540.468.3159Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
09-24 21:42 Opening
18.15%
09-25 16:26
13.93%
09-27 16:17 Latest
13.93%
9
Record Count
1
Change Count
-4.22%
Home Prob Cumulative
±4.22%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
★★★★★

Title

Count Suffix
09-27 13:00
🟢Away win prob. up★★★★☆
Away win probability increased by 10.52 points to 68.35% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 13:00
🔴Home win prob. down★★★☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 5.35 points to 12.8% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 13:00
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.62 to 1.39 (-14.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-27 13:00
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 5.16 to 7.42 (+43.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 13:00
🟢Total up★★★☆☆
O/U line moved from 2.5 to 3, up 0.5 goals from opening - goal expectation rising notably.
09-27 13:00
🔴Handicap down★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from -1 to -1/-1.5, down 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward away side.
09-27 09:47
🟢Away win prob. up★★★☆☆
Away win probability increased by 9.3 points to 67.13% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 09:47
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 4.55 points to 13.6% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 09:47
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.62 to 1.41 (-13.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-27 09:47
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 5.16 to 6.96 (+34.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 06:43
🟢Away win prob. up★★★☆☆
Away win probability increased by 8.3 points to 66.13% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 06:43
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 4.06 points to 14.09% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 06:43
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.62 to 1.43 (-11.7%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-27 06:43
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 5.16 to 6.71 (+30.0%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 03:26
🟢Away win prob. up★★★★☆
Away win probability increased by 10.35 points to 68.18% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 03:26
🔴Home win prob. down★★★☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 5.66 points to 12.49% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 03:26
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 5.16 to 7.59 (+47.1%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 03:26
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.62 to 1.39 (-14.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-27 00:16
🟢Away win prob. up★★★★☆
Away win probability increased by 10.12 points to 67.95% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 00:16
🔴Home win prob. down★★★☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 5.49 points to 12.66% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 00:16
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 5.16 to 7.46 (+44.6%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-26 13:36
🟢Away win prob. up★★★☆☆
Away win probability increased by 8.87 points to 66.7% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-26 13:36
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 4.69 points to 13.46% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-26 13:36
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.62 to 1.41 (-13.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-26 13:36
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 5.16 to 6.99 (+35.5%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-25 16:26
🟢Away win prob. up★★★☆☆
Away win probability increased by 7.65 points to 65.48% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-25 16:26
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 4.22 points to 13.93% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-25 16:26
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.62 to 1.44 (-11.1%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-25 16:26
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 5.16 to 6.77 (+31.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-25 16:26
🟢Total up★★☆☆☆
O/U line moved from 2.5 to 2.5/3, up 0.25 goals from opening - goal expectation slightly higher.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
09-24 21:42
Opening RecordOpening Short
09-25 16:26
Handicap Down LineHandicap
09-25 16:26
Over Under Up LineOver Under
09-25 16:26
Europe Home Odds UpEurope
09-25 16:26
Prob Change PrefixHome Prob DownProbability
09-26 13:36
Over Under Up LineOver Under
09-27 00:16
Europe Home Odds UpEurope
09-27 06:43
Europe Home Odds DownEurope
09-27 13:00
Europe Home Odds UpEurope
09-27 16:17
Handicap Up LineHandicap
09-27 16:17
Over Under Down LineOver Under
09-27 16:17
Europe Home Odds DownEurope

Overview Stats Title

2
Handicap Changes
3
Ou Changes
5
Odds Changes
1
Prob Changes
9
Total Records
4Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
Pre Match
Monitor Level
Pre Match Monitoring
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
09-24
09-25
09-26
09-27
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