UEFA Nations League

Lithuania vs Azerbaijan Odds Movement Analysis | UEFA Nations League | 168 Tips

LithuaniaLithuania
VS
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-09-27 15:03:23
Pre Match High Freq Until Kickoff

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 7.14 -0.25 0.02
Over Under 7.14 2.5 0.02
Europe 2.21 | 2.94 | 3.65
Probability 42.4% | 31.9% | 25.7%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Moving
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
European Odds, Implied Probability show the same direction toward the home side. Evidence Label: 2.45 → 2.21
Market State Agreement
Mixed
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Over Under · Europe
Market State Evidence
2
Market Signals Title
🟢 Home price down ★★★☆☆🟢 Home win prob. up ★★☆☆☆
Supporting Signals Title
Home price down2.45 → 2.212026-09-27 13:00:26★★★☆☆Home win prob. up37.93 → 42.422026-09-27 13:00:26★★☆☆☆
Strength Label ★★★☆☆ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match High Freq Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-09-27 15:03:23

Key Movements Title

5
09-27 13:00Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line09-27 09:46Away price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line09-27 13:00Home price down★★★☆☆Key Movement Line09-27 03:26Away price up★★★☆☆Key Movement Line09-27 00:16Away price up★★★☆☆Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleThe handicap line was unchanged, while the away-side price changed.
History Title
09-24 21:421.07 -0.25 0.75Opening
09-27 15:037.14 -0.25 0.02Home Water Up
0.023.587.141610Home WaterAway Water-0.25
Timeline Title
09-24 21:42 Opening
-0.25
09-27 15:03
-0.25
09-27 15:03 Latest
-0.25
10
Record Count
1
Change Count
0
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleThe Over/Under line moved up materially from the opening position.
History Title
09-24 21:420.89 2 0.91Opening
09-27 13:000.83 1.5/2 1.05Down Line
09-27 15:037.14 2.5 0.02Up Line
0.023.587.141610OverUnder2.5
Timeline Title
09-24 21:42 Opening
2（0.89 / 0.91）
09-27 13:00
1.5/2（0.83 / 1.05）
09-27 15:03
2.5（7.14 / 0.02）
09-27 15:03 Latest
2.5（7.14 / 0.02）
10
Record Count
2
Change Count
1
Up Count
1
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Europe

Of
Comment TitleThe home 1X2 price decreased by a small amount.
History Title
09-24 21:422.45 / 3.03 / 2.96Opening
09-27 06:432.31 / 2.97 / 3.35Away Odds Up
09-27 13:002.21 / 2.94 / 3.65Away Odds Up
09-27 15:032.21 / 2.94 / 3.65No Change
2.212.933.651610HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
09-24 21:42 Opening
2.45 / 3.03 / 2.96
09-27 06:43
2.31 / 2.97 / 3.35
09-27 13:00
2.21 / 2.94 / 3.65
09-27 15:03 Latest
2.21 / 2.94 / 3.65
10
Record Count
2
Change Count
0
Home Odds Change
2
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleA small upward change in home implied probability was recorded.
History Title
09-24 21:4237.9% / 30.7% / 31.4%Opening
09-27 15:0342.4% / 31.9% / 25.7%No Change
25.734.142.41610Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
09-24 21:42 Opening
37.93%
09-27 15:03 Latest
42.42%
10
Record Count
0
Change Count
+4.49%
Home Prob Cumulative
±1.85%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
No Change

Title

Count Suffix
09-27 13:00
🔴Away win prob. down★★★☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 5.71 points to 25.69% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 13:00
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 4.49 points to 42.42% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 13:00
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 2.96 to 3.65 (+23.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 13:00
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.45 to 2.21 (-9.8%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-27 13:00
🔴Total down★★☆☆☆
O/U line moved from 2 to 1.5/2, down 0.25 goals from opening - goal expectation slightly lower.
09-27 09:46
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 3.42 points to 27.98% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 09:46
🟢Home win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 2.64 points to 40.57% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 09:46
🔴Away price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 2.96 to 3.35 (+13.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 09:46
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.45 to 2.31 (-5.7%) - away side attracting more attention.
09-27 06:43
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 3.45 points to 27.95% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 06:43
🟢Home win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 2.6 points to 40.53% - market probability distribution shifted.
09-27 03:26
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.96 to 3.16 (+6.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-27 00:16
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.96 to 3.15 (+6.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-26 21:06
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.96 to 3.14 (+6.1%) - market confidence in away side easing.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
09-24 21:42
Opening RecordOpening Short
09-27 06:43
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
09-27 13:00
Over Under Down LineOver Under
09-27 13:00
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
09-27 15:03
Handicap Home Water UpHandicap
09-27 15:03
Over Under Up LineOver Under

Overview Stats Title

1
Handicap Changes
2
Ou Changes
2
Odds Changes
0
Prob Changes
10
Total Records
4Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
High Freq
Monitor Level
Pre Match High Freq
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
09-24
09-25
09-26
09-27
Related Title
Serbia VS NetherlandsUEFA Nations League Denmark VS WalesUEFA Nations League Austria VS KosovoUEFA Nations League Gibraltar VS AndorraUEFA Nations League Germany VS GreeceUEFA Nations League