UEFA Nations League

Germany vs Serbia Odds Movement Analysis | UEFA Nations League | 168 Tips

GermanyGermany
VS
SerbiaSerbia
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-10-01 20:46:37
Pre Match High Freq Until Kickoff
Stake Stake BetWinner BetWinner 1xBet 1xBet

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 6.25 -0.25 0.05
Over Under 5.88 2.5 0.06
Europe 1.19 | 7.10 | 13.43
Probability 79.6% | 13.3% | 7.0%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Conflicted
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
Core directional signals are split between Implied Probability and Handicap.
Market State Agreement
Conflicting
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Over Under · Europe
Market State Evidence
2
Market Signals Title
🟢 Home win prob. up ★★☆☆☆🔴 Total down ★★★★☆
Conflict Neutral Note
Conflicting Signals Title
Home win prob. up75.52 → 79.62026-10-01 19:00:47★★☆☆☆
Independent Market Signals Title
Total down3/3.5 → 32026-10-01 19:00:47★★★★☆
Strength Label ★★★★★ Signals are split across markets. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match High Freq Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-10-01 20:46:37

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Key Movements Title

5
10-01 15:59Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-01 19:00Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-01 09:24Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-01 12:46Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-01 06:17Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleThe observed handicap moved materially lower than the opening position.
History Title
09-28 02:470.60 -1.5 1.19Opening
09-28 15:331.04 -2 0.84Up Line
09-29 03:470.89 -1.75 0.99Down Line
10-01 03:060.94 -2 0.94Up Line
10-01 06:170.70 -1.75 1.27Down Line
10-01 09:240.85 -2 1.04Up Line
10-01 15:591.07 -2.25 0.82Up Line
10-01 19:000.99 -2 0.90Down Line
10-01 20:466.25 -0.25 0.05Down Line
0.053.156.251713Home WaterAway Water-0.25
Timeline Title
09-28 02:47 Opening
-1.5
09-28 15:33
-2
09-29 03:47
-1.75
10-01 03:06
-2
10-01 06:17
-1.75
10-01 09:24
-2
10-01 15:59
-2.25
10-01 19:00
-2
10-01 20:46
-0.25
10-01 20:46 Latest
-0.25
13
Record Count
8
Change Count
4
Up Count
4
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleThe observed total line moved notably lower.
History Title
09-28 02:470.85 3/3.5 0.91Opening
09-30 16:341.03 3.5 0.85Up Line
10-01 19:000.93 3 0.95Down Line
10-01 20:465.88 2.5 0.06Down Line
0.062.975.881713OverUnder2.5
Timeline Title
09-28 02:47 Opening
3/3.5（0.85 / 0.91）
09-30 16:34
3.5（1.03 / 0.85）
10-01 19:00
3（0.93 / 0.95）
10-01 20:46
2.5（5.88 / 0.06）
10-01 20:46 Latest
2.5（5.88 / 0.06）
13
Record Count
3
Change Count
1
Up Count
2
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Europe

Of
Comment TitleNo significant 1X2 price movement recorded yet.
History Title
09-28 02:471.24 / 6.02 / 10.50Opening
09-28 15:331.23 / 6.26 / 11.13Away Odds Up
09-29 03:471.26 / 5.91 / 10.30Away Odds Down
09-30 16:341.23 / 6.20 / 11.33Away Odds Up
10-01 03:061.22 / 6.54 / 12.30Away Odds Up
10-01 15:591.20 / 7.06 / 13.46Away Odds Up
10-01 20:461.19 / 7.10 / 13.43No Change
1.197.3313.51713HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
09-28 02:47 Opening
1.24 / 6.02 / 10.50
09-28 15:33
1.23 / 6.26 / 11.13
09-29 03:47
1.26 / 5.91 / 10.30
09-30 16:34
1.23 / 6.20 / 11.33
10-01 03:06
1.22 / 6.54 / 12.30
10-01 15:59
1.20 / 7.06 / 13.46
10-01 20:46 Latest
1.19 / 7.10 / 13.43
13
Record Count
5
Change Count
0
Home Odds Change
5
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleA small upward change in home implied probability was recorded.
History Title
09-28 02:4775.5% / 15.6% / 8.9%Opening
10-01 20:4679.6% / 13.3% / 7.0%No Change
7.0543.379.61713Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
09-28 02:47 Opening
75.52%
10-01 20:46 Latest
79.60%
13
Record Count
0
Change Count
+4.08%
Home Prob Cumulative
±1.63%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
No Change

Title

Count Suffix
10-01 19:00
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 4.08 points to 79.6% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-01 19:00
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 10.5 to 13.43 (+27.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-01 19:00
🟢Home price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.24 to 1.19 (-4.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-01 19:00
🔴Total down★★☆☆☆
O/U line moved from 3/3.5 to 3, down 0.25 goals from opening - goal expectation slightly lower.
10-01 19:00
🟢Handicap up★★☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 2, up 2 steps (0.5 goals) from opening - market backing home side strongly.
10-01 15:59
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.9 points to 79.42% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-01 15:59
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 10.5 to 13.46 (+28.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-01 15:59
⚠️Handicap volatile★★★☆☆
Handicap oscillated 3 steps today (low 6 to high 9) - market divergence notable
10-01 15:59
🟢Handicap up★★★☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 2/2.5, up 3 steps (0.75 goals) from opening - market backing home side strongly.
10-01 15:59
🟢Home price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.24 to 1.2 (-3.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-01 15:59
🟢Total up★★☆☆☆
O/U line moved from 3/3.5 to 3.5, up 0.25 goals from opening - goal expectation slightly higher.
10-01 12:46
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.41 points to 78.93% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-01 12:46
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 10.5 to 12.73 (+21.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-01 12:46
🟢Handicap up★★☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 2, up 2 steps (0.5 goals) from opening - market backing home side strongly.
10-01 09:24
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.31 points to 78.83% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-01 09:24
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 10.5 to 12.78 (+21.7%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-01 06:17
🟢Home win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 2.89 points to 78.41% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-01 06:17
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 10.5 to 12.62 (+20.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-01 06:17
🟢Handicap up★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 1.5/2, up 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward home side.
10-01 03:06
🟢Home win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 2.26 points to 77.78% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-01 03:06
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 10.5 to 12.3 (+17.1%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-01 03:06
🟢Handicap up★★☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 2, up 2 steps (0.5 goals) from opening - market backing home side strongly.
09-30 16:34
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 10.5 to 11.33 (+7.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-30 16:34
🟢Handicap up★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 1.5/2, up 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward home side.
09-28 15:33
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 10.5 to 11.13 (+6.0%) - market confidence in away side easing.
09-28 15:33
🟢Handicap up★★☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 1.5 to 2, up 2 steps (0.5 goals) from opening - market backing home side strongly.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
09-28 02:47
Opening RecordOpening Short
09-28 15:33
Handicap Up LineHandicap
09-28 15:33
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
09-29 03:47
Handicap Down LineHandicap
09-29 03:47
Europe Away Odds DownEurope
09-30 16:34
Over Under Up LineOver Under
09-30 16:34
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
10-01 03:06
Handicap Up LineHandicap
10-01 03:06
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
10-01 06:17
Handicap Down LineHandicap
10-01 09:24
Handicap Up LineHandicap
10-01 15:59
Handicap Up LineHandicap
10-01 15:59
Europe Away Odds UpEurope
10-01 19:00
Handicap Down LineHandicap
10-01 19:00
Over Under Down LineOver Under
10-01 20:46
Handicap Down LineHandicap
10-01 20:46
Over Under Down LineOver Under

Overview Stats Title

8
Handicap Changes
3
Ou Changes
5
Odds Changes
0
Prob Changes
13
Total Records
4Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
High Freq
Monitor Level
Pre Match High Freq
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
09-28
09-29
09-30
10-01
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