Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Odds Movement Analysis | UEFA Europa League | 168 Tips

UEFA Europa League 2026-10-16 00:45
Lech PoznańLech Poznań
VS
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-10-15 16:34:12
Pre Match High Freq Until Kickoff
Stake Stake BetWinner BetWinner 1xBet 1xBet

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 0.94 +1.25 0.95
Over Under 1.03 3.5 0.84
Europe 5.84 | 4.85 | 1.47
Probability 16.2% | 19.5% | 64.3%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Moving
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
European Odds, Implied Probability both indicate movement toward the away side. Evidence Label: 4.43 → 5.95
Market State Agreement
Mixed
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Over Under · Europe
Market State Evidence
3
Market Signals Title
🔴 Home price up ★★★★★🔴 Home win prob. down ★★☆☆☆🟢 Total up ★★☆☆☆
Supporting Signals Title
Home price up4.43 → 5.952026-10-15 14:52:53★★★★★Home win prob. down21.1 → 15.912026-10-15 14:52:53★★☆☆☆
Independent Market Signals Title
Total up3/3.5 → 3.52026-10-15 14:52:53★★☆☆☆
Strength Label ★★★★★ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match High Freq Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-10-15 16:34:12

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Key Movements Title

5
10-15 14:52Home price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-15 13:04Home price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-15 11:51Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-15 11:06Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-15 14:52Away price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleThe handicap line was unchanged, while the away-side price changed.
History Title
10-08 04:400.63 +1.25 1.41Opening
10-08 14:451.02 +0.75 0.80Up Line
10-14 04:440.83 +1 1.05Down Line
10-15 05:300.66 +1.25 1.34Down Line
10-15 08:130.96 +1 0.93Up Line
10-15 13:040.85 +1.25 1.04Down Line
10-15 14:521.04 +1.25 0.85Home Water Up
10-15 16:340.94 +1.25 0.95No Change
0.631.021.4111733Home WaterAway Water+1.25
Timeline Title
10-08 04:40 Opening
+1.25
10-08 14:45
+0.75
10-14 04:44
+1
10-15 05:30
+1.25
10-15 08:13
+1
10-15 13:04
+1.25
10-15 14:52
+1.25
10-15 16:34 Latest
+1.25
33
Record Count
6
Change Count
2
Up Count
3
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleA small upward change in the total-goals line was recorded.
History Title
10-08 04:401.06 3/3.5 0.83Opening
10-15 08:131.03 3.5 0.84Up Line
10-15 13:040.84 3.5 1.03Over Water Down
10-15 16:341.03 3.5 0.84No Change
0.800.931.0611733OverUnder3.5
Timeline Title
10-08 04:40 Opening
3/3.5（1.06 / 0.83）
10-15 08:13
3.5（1.03 / 0.84）
10-15 13:04
3.5（0.84 / 1.03）
10-15 16:34 Latest
3.5（1.03 / 0.84）
33
Record Count
2
Change Count
1
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Europe

Of
Comment TitleA large upward change in the home-win price was recorded.
History Title
10-08 04:404.43 / 4.20 / 1.65Opening
10-15 14:525.95 / 4.91 / 1.46Home Odds Up
10-15 16:345.84 / 4.85 / 1.47No Change
1.463.715.9511733HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
10-08 04:40 Opening
4.43 / 4.20 / 1.65
10-15 14:52
5.95 / 4.91 / 1.46
10-15 16:34 Latest
5.84 / 4.85 / 1.47
33
Record Count
1
Change Count
1
Home Odds Change
0
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleThe home implied probability decreased slightly from the opening observation.
History Title
10-08 04:4021.1% / 22.2% / 56.6%Opening
10-15 16:3416.2% / 19.5% / 64.3%No Change
15.940.464.811733Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
10-08 04:40 Opening
21.10%
10-15 16:34 Latest
16.19%
33
Record Count
0
Change Count
-4.91%
Home Prob Cumulative
±2.44%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
No Change

Title

Count Suffix
10-15 14:52
🟢Away win prob. up★★★☆☆
Away win probability increased by 8.17 points to 64.82% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 14:52
🔴Home win prob. down★★★☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 5.19 points to 15.91% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 14:52
🟢Away price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.65 to 1.46 (-11.5%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 14:52
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 5.95 (+34.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 14:52
🟢Total up★★☆☆☆
O/U line moved from 3/3.5 to 3.5, up 0.25 goals from opening - goal expectation slightly higher.
10-15 13:04
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 4.59 points to 61.24% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 13:04
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.75 points to 18.35% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 13:04
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.65 to 1.54 (-6.7%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 13:04
🔴Home price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 5.14 (+16.0%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 11:51
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 3.76 points to 60.41% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 11:51
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.4 points to 18.7% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 11:51
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.65 to 1.56 (-5.5%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 11:51
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 5.04 (+13.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 11:51
🟢Handicap up★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from -1/-1.5 to -1, up 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward home side.
10-15 11:06
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 3.16 points to 59.81% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 11:06
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.01 points to 19.09% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 11:06
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.95 (+11.7%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 11:06
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.65 to 1.58 (-4.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 09:39
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.92 points to 59.57% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 09:39
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.88 (+10.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 08:13
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.91 points to 59.56% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 08:13
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.89 (+10.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 06:39
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.23 points to 58.88% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 06:39
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 1.65 to 1.6 (-3.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 06:39
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.78 (+7.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 05:30
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.71 (+6.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 03:44
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.61 (+4.1%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 01:45
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.6 (+3.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-14 20:58
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.59 (+3.6%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-14 18:28
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 4.43 to 4.57 (+3.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-13 23:56
🟢Handicap up★★☆☆☆
Handicap moved from -1/-1.5 to -0.5/-1, up 2 steps (0.5 goals) from opening - market backing home side strongly.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
10-08 04:40
Opening RecordOpening Short
10-08 14:45
Handicap Up LineHandicap
10-14 04:44
Handicap Down LineHandicap
10-15 05:30
Handicap Down LineHandicap
10-15 08:13
Handicap Up LineHandicap
10-15 08:13
Over Under Up LineOver Under
10-15 13:04
Handicap Down LineHandicap
10-15 13:04
Over Under Over Water DownOver Under
10-15 14:52
Handicap Home Water UpHandicap
10-15 14:52
Europe Home Odds UpEurope

Overview Stats Title

6
Handicap Changes
2
Ou Changes
1
Odds Changes
0
Prob Changes
33
Total Records
8Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
High Freq
Monitor Level
Pre Match High Freq
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
10-09
10-10
10-11
10-12
10-13
10-14
10-15
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