FC Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Odds Movement Analysis | UEFA Conference League | 168 Tips

UEFA Conference League 2026-10-16 00:45
FC LuganoFC Lugano
VS
Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-10-15 16:37:33
Pre Match High Freq Until Kickoff
Stake Stake BetWinner BetWinner 1xBet 1xBet

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 0.80 -0.25 1.08
Over Under 0.84 2.5/3 1.02
Europe 2.22 | 3.55 | 3.00
Probability 42.3% | 26.4% | 31.3%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Moving
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
Handicap, 1X2 price, and implied probability all indicate movement toward the home side. Evidence Label: 2.71 → 2.35
Market State Agreement
Aligned
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Over Under · Europe
Market State Evidence
3
Market Signals Title
🟢 Handicap up ★☆☆☆☆🟢 Home price down ★★★★★🟢 Home win prob. up ★★★☆☆
Supporting Signals Title
Handicap up0 → -0.252026-10-15 14:58:14★☆☆☆☆Home price down2.71 → 2.352026-10-15 14:58:14★★★★★Home win prob. up34.16 → 39.842026-10-15 14:58:14★★★☆☆
Strength Label ★★★★★ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match High Freq Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-10-15 16:37:33

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Key Movements Title

5
10-15 13:08Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-15 14:58Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-15 11:54Away price up★★★★★Key Movement Line10-15 11:09Away price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-15 13:08Home price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleA small upward handicap change was recorded.
History Title
10-08 04:451.12 0 0.77Opening
10-15 11:540.99 -0.25 0.89Up Line
10-15 16:370.80 -0.25 1.08home_water_down
0.770.951.1211835Home WaterAway Water-0.25
Timeline Title
10-08 04:45 Opening
0
10-15 11:54
-0.25
10-15 16:37
-0.25
10-15 16:37 Latest
-0.25
35
Record Count
2
Change Count
1
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleNo significant total (over/under) movement recorded yet.
History Title
10-08 04:450.92 2.5/3 0.94Opening
10-15 14:581.02 3 0.84Up Line
10-15 16:370.84 2.5/3 1.02Down Line
0.810.921.0211835OverUnder2.5/3
Timeline Title
10-08 04:45 Opening
2.5/3（0.92 / 0.94）
10-15 14:58
3（1.02 / 0.84）
10-15 16:37
2.5/3（0.84 / 1.02）
10-15 16:37 Latest
2.5/3（0.84 / 1.02）
35
Record Count
2
Change Count
1
Up Count
1
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Europe

Of
Comment TitleA large downward change in the home-win price was recorded.
History Title
10-08 04:452.71 / 3.50 / 2.35Opening
10-15 16:372.22 / 3.55 / 3.00Home Odds Down
2.222.883.5511835HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
10-08 04:45 Opening
2.71 / 3.50 / 2.35
10-15 16:37
2.22 / 3.55 / 3.00
10-15 16:37 Latest
2.22 / 3.55 / 3.00
35
Record Count
1
Change Count
1
Home Odds Change
0
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleA noticeable upward change in home implied probability was recorded.
History Title
10-08 04:4534.2% / 26.4% / 39.4%Opening
10-15 16:3742.3% / 26.4% / 31.3%No Change
26.434.342.311835Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
10-08 04:45 Opening
34.16%
10-15 16:37 Latest
42.28%
35
Record Count
0
Change Count
+8.12%
Home Prob Cumulative
±2.44%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
No Change

Title

Count Suffix
10-15 14:58
🔴Away win prob. down★★★☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 5.59 points to 33.8% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 14:58
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 5.68 points to 39.84% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 14:58
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.77 (+17.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 14:58
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.35 (-13.3%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 14:58
🟢Total up★★☆☆☆
O/U line moved from 2.5/3 to 3, up 0.25 goals from opening - goal expectation slightly higher.
10-15 14:58
🟢Handicap up★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from 0 to 0/0.5, up 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward home side.
10-15 13:08
🔴Away win prob. down★★★☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 5.98 points to 33.41% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 13:08
🟢Home win prob. up★★★☆☆
Home win probability increased by 6.0 points to 40.16% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 13:08
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.8 (+19.1%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 13:08
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.33 (-14.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 11:54
🔴Away win prob. down★★★☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 5.01 points to 34.38% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 11:54
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 4.97 points to 39.13% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 11:54
🔴Away price up★★★★★
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.72 (+15.7%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 11:54
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.39 (-11.8%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 11:09
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.51 points to 34.88% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 11:09
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 4.47 points to 38.63% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 11:09
🔴Away price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.68 (+14.0%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 11:09
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.42 (-10.7%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 09:42
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.11 points to 35.28% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 09:42
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.85 points to 38.01% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 09:42
🔴Away price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.65 (+12.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 09:42
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.46 (-9.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 08:17
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 3.97 points to 35.42% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 08:17
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.7 points to 37.86% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 08:17
🔴Away price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.64 (+12.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 08:17
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.47 (-8.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 05:33
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 3.83 points to 35.56% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 05:33
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.55 points to 37.71% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 05:33
🔴Away price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.63 (+11.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 05:33
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.48 (-8.5%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 03:47
🔴Away win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 2.65 points to 36.74% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 03:47
🟢Home win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 2.44 points to 36.6% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 03:47
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.54 (+8.1%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 03:47
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.55 (-5.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 00:51
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.48 (+5.5%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 00:51
🟢Home price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 2.71 to 2.62 (-3.3%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-14 22:56
🔴Away price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.35 to 2.44 (+3.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
10-08 04:45
Opening RecordOpening Short
10-15 11:54
Handicap Up LineHandicap
10-15 14:58
Over Under Up LineOver Under
10-15 16:37
Handicap home_water_downHandicap
10-15 16:37
Over Under Down LineOver Under
10-15 16:37
Europe Home Odds DownEurope

Overview Stats Title

2
Handicap Changes
2
Ou Changes
1
Odds Changes
0
Prob Changes
35
Total Records
8Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
High Freq
Monitor Level
Pre Match High Freq
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
10-09
10-10
10-11
10-12
10-13
10-14
10-15
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