FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax Odds Movement Analysis | Eredivisie | 168 Tips

Eredivisie 2026-10-18 22:45
FC GroningenFC Groningen
VS
AFC AjaxAFC Ajax
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-10-18 14:37:39
Pre Match High Freq Until Kickoff
Stake Stake BetWinner BetWinner 1xBet 1xBet

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 0.91 +0.5 0.98
Over Under 1.00 3.5 0.88
Europe 3.42 | 3.96 | 1.90
Probability 27.3% | 23.6% | 49.1%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Moving
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
Three core directional markets show the same home-side direction. Evidence Label: 3.93 → 3.71
Market State Agreement
Aligned
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Europe
Market State Evidence
3
Market Signals Title
🟢 Handicap up ★☆☆☆☆🟢 Home price down ★★★★☆🟢 Home win prob. up ★★☆☆☆
Supporting Signals Title
Handicap up+0.75 → +0.52026-10-18 11:04:09★☆☆☆☆Home price down3.93 → 3.712026-10-18 13:15:47★★★★☆Home win prob. up23.57 → 26.622026-10-18 09:28:18★★☆☆☆
Strength Label ★★★★☆ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match High Freq Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-10-18 14:37:39

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Key Movements Title

5
10-17 08:14Home price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-17 12:34Home price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-17 17:41Home price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-16 21:46Home price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-16 00:30Home price down★★★★☆Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleA small upward handicap change was recorded.
History Title
10-12 05:140.91 +0.75 0.97Opening
10-16 00:301.00 +0.5 0.88Up Line
10-18 13:150.89 +0.75 1.00Down Line
10-18 14:370.91 +0.5 0.98Up Line
0.840.951.0511324Home WaterAway Water+0.5
Timeline Title
10-12 05:14 Opening
+0.75
10-16 00:30
+0.5
10-18 13:15
+0.75
10-18 14:37
+0.5
10-18 14:37 Latest
+0.5
24
Record Count
3
Change Count
2
Up Count
1
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleNo significant total (over/under) movement recorded yet.
History Title
10-12 05:140.94 3.5 0.92Opening
10-18 14:371.00 3.5 0.88No Change
0.870.941.0011324OverUnder3.5
Timeline Title
10-12 05:14 Opening
3.5（0.94 / 0.92）
10-18 14:37 Latest
3.5（1.00 / 0.88）
24
Record Count
0
Change Count
0
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
No Change

Europe

Of
Comment TitleThe home-win price moved down noticeably from the opening observation.
History Title
10-12 05:143.93 / 4.22 / 1.70Opening
10-16 00:303.45 / 4.07 / 1.85Home Odds Down
10-18 14:373.42 / 3.96 / 1.90Home Odds Down
1.702.964.2211324HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
10-12 05:14 Opening
3.93 / 4.22 / 1.70
10-16 00:30
3.45 / 4.07 / 1.85
10-18 14:37
3.42 / 3.96 / 1.90
10-18 14:37 Latest
3.42 / 3.96 / 1.90
24
Record Count
2
Change Count
2
Home Odds Change
0
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleThe home implied probability increased slightly from the opening observation.
History Title
10-12 05:1423.6% / 21.9% / 54.5%Opening
10-18 14:3727.3% / 23.6% / 49.1%No Change
21.938.254.511324Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
10-12 05:14 Opening
23.57%
10-18 14:37 Latest
27.30%
24
Record Count
0
Change Count
+3.73%
Home Prob Cumulative
±2.14%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
No Change

Title

Count Suffix
10-18 13:15
🔴Away win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 2.34 points to 52.14% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 13:15
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.7 to 1.79 (+5.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-18 13:15
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.71 (-5.6%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-18 11:04
🟢Handicap up★☆☆☆☆
Handicap moved from -0.5/-1 to -0.5, up 1 steps (0.25 goals) from opening - handicap shifted toward home side.
10-18 09:28
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.24 points to 50.24% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 09:28
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.05 points to 26.62% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 09:28
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.7 to 1.86 (+9.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-18 09:28
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.51 (-10.7%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-18 07:54
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.04 points to 50.44% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 07:54
🟢Home win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 2.94 points to 26.51% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 07:54
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.7 to 1.85 (+8.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-18 07:54
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.52 (-10.4%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-18 05:03
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.33 points to 50.15% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 05:03
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.31 points to 26.88% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 05:03
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.47 (-11.7%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-18 05:03
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.7 to 1.86 (+9.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-18 03:08
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.34 points to 50.14% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 03:08
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.38 points to 26.95% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-18 03:08
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.46 (-12.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-17 17:41
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.38 points to 50.1% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 17:41
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.44 points to 27.01% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 17:41
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.45 (-12.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-17 12:34
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.5 points to 49.98% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 12:34
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.61 points to 27.18% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 12:34
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.42 (-13.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-17 08:14
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.57 points to 49.91% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 08:14
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.65 points to 27.22% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 08:14
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.41 (-13.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-16 21:46
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.22 points to 50.26% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 21:46
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.38 points to 26.95% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 21:46
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.7 to 1.85 (+8.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-16 21:46
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.45 (-12.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-16 09:18
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.07 points to 50.41% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 09:18
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.24 points to 26.81% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 09:18
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.7 to 1.84 (+8.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-16 09:18
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.46 (-12.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-16 00:30
🔴Away win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Away win probability decreased by 4.25 points to 50.23% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 00:30
🟢Home win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Home win probability increased by 3.37 points to 26.94% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 00:30
🔴Away price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.7 to 1.85 (+8.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-16 00:30
🟢Home price down★★★★☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.45 (-12.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 15:40
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.7 (-5.8%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 15:40
🔴Away price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 1.7 to 1.76 (+3.5%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 06:05
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.72 (-5.3%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-14 06:41
🟢Home price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.73 (-5.1%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-13 16:35
🟢Home price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.93 to 3.74 (-4.8%) - away side attracting more attention.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
10-12 05:14
Opening RecordOpening Short
10-16 00:30
Handicap Up LineHandicap
10-16 00:30
Europe Home Odds DownEurope
10-18 13:15
Handicap Down LineHandicap
10-18 14:37
Handicap Up LineHandicap
10-18 14:37
Europe Home Odds DownEurope

Overview Stats Title

3
Handicap Changes
0
Ou Changes
2
Odds Changes
0
Prob Changes
24
Total Records
7Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
High Freq
Monitor Level
Pre Match High Freq
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
10-12
10-13
10-14
10-15
10-16
10-17
10-18
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