Newcastle United FC vs Aston Villa FC Odds Movement Analysis | Premier League | 168 Tips

Premier League 2026-10-18 00:30
Newcastle United FCNewcastle United FC
VS
Aston Villa FCAston Villa FC
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-10-17 14:44:31
Pre Match High Freq Until Kickoff
Stake Stake BetWinner BetWinner 1xBet 1xBet

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 1.06 -0.25 0.83
Over Under 0.91 3 0.98
Europe 2.31 | 3.66 | 2.86
Probability 41.0% | 25.9% | 33.1%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Stable
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
European Odds, Implied Probability show the same direction toward the away side. Evidence Label: 2.07 → 2.25
Market State Agreement
Mixed
Market State Coverage
No Market Movement
Market State Evidence
2
Market Signals Title
🔴 Home price up ★★★★☆🔴 Home win prob. down ★★☆☆☆
Supporting Signals Title
Home price up2.07 → 2.252026-10-17 12:03:45★★★★☆Home win prob. down45.41 → 42.092026-10-17 12:03:45★★☆☆☆
Strength Label ★★★★☆ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Pre Match High Freq Time To Kickoff Label: Until Kickoff Market State Latest: 2026-10-17 14:44:31

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Key Movements Title

5
10-17 12:03Home price up★★★☆☆Key Movement Line10-17 09:47Home price up★★★☆☆Key Movement Line10-17 07:46Home price up★★★☆☆Key Movement Line10-16 11:43Home price up★★★☆☆Key Movement Line10-17 12:03Away price down★★★☆☆Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleThe handicap tier stayed the same and the away-side water shifted.
History Title
10-10 10:430.83 -0.25 1.05Opening
10-17 14:441.06 -0.25 0.83No Change
0.830.951.0611529Home WaterAway Water-0.25
Timeline Title
10-10 10:43 Opening
-0.25
10-17 14:44 Latest
-0.25
29
Record Count
0
Change Count
0
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
No Change

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleNo significant total (over/under) movement recorded yet.
History Title
10-10 10:430.98 3 0.90Opening
10-17 14:440.91 3 0.98No Change
0.870.941.0111529OverUnder3
Timeline Title
10-10 10:43 Opening
3（0.98 / 0.90）
10-17 14:44 Latest
3（0.91 / 0.98）
29
Record Count
0
Change Count
0
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
No Change

Europe

Of
Comment TitleThe home-win price moved up noticeably from the opening observation.
History Title
10-10 10:432.07 / 3.74 / 3.19Opening
10-17 14:442.31 / 3.66 / 2.86No Change
2.072.913.7411529HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
10-10 10:43 Opening
2.07 / 3.74 / 3.19
10-17 14:44 Latest
2.31 / 3.66 / 2.86
29
Record Count
0
Change Count
0
Home Odds Change
0
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
No Change

Probability

Of
Comment TitleThe home implied probability decreased slightly from the opening observation.
History Title
10-10 10:4345.4% / 25.1% / 29.5%Opening
10-17 14:4441.0% / 25.9% / 33.1%No Change
25.135.345.411529Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
10-10 10:43 Opening
45.41%
10-17 14:44 Latest
41.00%
29
Record Count
0
Change Count
-4.41%
Home Prob Cumulative
±1.29%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
No Change

Title

Count Suffix
10-17 12:03
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.64 points to 32.1% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 12:03
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.32 points to 42.09% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 12:03
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.95 (-7.5%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-17 12:03
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.25 (+8.7%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-17 09:47
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.51 points to 31.97% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 09:47
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.16 points to 42.25% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 09:47
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.96 (-7.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-17 09:47
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.24 (+8.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-17 07:46
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.3 points to 31.76% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 07:46
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.96 points to 42.45% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 07:46
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.98 (-6.6%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-17 07:46
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.23 (+7.7%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-17 04:52
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.33 points to 31.79% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 04:52
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.07 points to 42.34% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 04:52
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.97 (-6.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-17 00:51
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.28 points to 31.74% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 00:51
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.99 points to 42.42% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-17 00:51
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.98 (-6.6%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-16 23:18
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.33 points to 31.79% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 23:18
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.07 points to 42.34% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 23:18
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.97 (-6.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-16 19:04
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.29 points to 31.75% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 19:04
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.93 points to 42.48% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 19:04
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.22 (+7.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-16 15:19
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.27 points to 31.73% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 15:19
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.96 points to 42.45% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 11:43
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.4 points to 31.86% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 11:43
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.11 points to 42.3% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 11:43
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.96 (-7.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-16 11:43
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.23 (+7.7%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-16 07:36
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.29 points to 31.75% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 07:36
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.93 points to 42.48% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 07:36
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.97 (-6.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-16 07:36
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.22 (+7.2%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-16 03:26
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.27 points to 31.73% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-16 03:26
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.96 points to 42.45% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 20:22
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.34 points to 31.8% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 20:22
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.01 points to 42.4% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 20:22
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.96 (-7.2%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 16:51
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.27 points to 31.73% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 16:51
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.96 points to 42.45% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 16:51
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.97 (-6.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 08:24
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.23 points to 31.69% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 08:24
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.82 points to 42.59% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 08:24
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.21 (+6.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-15 00:08
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.05 points to 31.51% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 00:08
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.59 points to 42.82% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-15 00:08
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 2.99 (-6.3%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-15 00:08
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.2 (+6.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-14 15:37
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.46 points to 42.95% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-14 15:37
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 3.0 (-6.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-14 15:37
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.19 (+5.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-13 22:52
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.27 points to 43.14% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-13 22:52
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 3.01 (-5.6%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-13 22:52
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.18 (+5.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-13 14:39
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.07 points to 43.34% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-13 14:39
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 3.03 (-5.0%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-13 14:39
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.17 (+4.8%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-13 05:29
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.19 to 3.04 (-4.7%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-13 05:29
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.07 to 2.16 (+4.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
10-10 10:43
Opening RecordOpening Short

Overview Stats Title

0
Handicap Changes
0
Ou Changes
0
Odds Changes
0
Prob Changes
29
Total Records
8Day Unit
Monitor Days
No Change
Market Activity
High Freq
Monitor Level
Pre Match High Freq
Current Status　·　Until Kickoff
Market Heat Change
10-11
10-12
10-13
10-14
10-15
10-16
10-17
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