Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Odds Movement Analysis | UEFA Nations League | 168 Tips

UEFA Nations League
LuxembourgLuxembourg
VS
BulgariaBulgaria
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-10-06 18:45:49
Finished Kicked Off
Stake Stake BetWinner BetWinner 1xBet 1xBet

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 1.22 -0.25 0.70
Over Under 1.11 2 0.78
Europe 2.43 | 3.00 | 3.15
Probability 38.7% | 31.4% | 29.9%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Moving
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
European Odds, Implied Probability show the same direction toward the away side. Evidence Label: 2.03 → 2.3
Market State Agreement
Mixed
Market State Coverage
Handicap · Over Under · Europe
Market State Evidence
2
Market Signals Title
🔴 Home price up ★★★★★🔴 Home win prob. down ★★★☆☆
Supporting Signals Title
Home price up2.03 → 2.32026-10-06 17:34:44★★★★★Home win prob. down45.94 → 40.862026-10-06 17:34:44★★★☆☆
Strength Label ★★★★★ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Finished Time To Kickoff Label: Kicked Off Market State Latest: 2026-10-06 18:45:49

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Key Movements Title

5
10-06 17:34Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-06 13:34Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-06 12:15Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line10-06 10:22Home price up★★★☆☆Key Movement Line10-06 07:42Home price up★★★☆☆Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleThe handicap tier stayed the same and the away-side water shifted.
History Title
10-05 03:460.80 -0.25 1.02Opening
10-06 18:451.22 -0.25 0.70Home Water Up
0.700.961.221916Home WaterAway Water-0.25
Timeline Title
10-05 03:46 Opening
-0.25
10-06 18:45
-0.25
10-06 18:45 Latest
-0.25
16
Record Count
1
Change Count
0
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleThe main total line was stable, with a change in the Under-side water.
History Title
10-05 03:460.84 2 0.96Opening
10-06 13:341.10 2 0.78Over Water Up
10-06 18:451.11 2 0.78No Change
0.760.941.131916OverUnder2
Timeline Title
10-05 03:46 Opening
2（0.84 / 0.96）
10-06 13:34
2（1.10 / 0.78）
10-06 18:45 Latest
2（1.11 / 0.78）
16
Record Count
1
Change Count
0
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Europe

Of
Comment TitleThe home 1X2 price increased by a large amount.
History Title
10-05 03:462.03 / 3.28 / 3.64Opening
10-06 18:452.43 / 3.00 / 3.15Home Odds Up
2.032.833.641916HomeDrawAway
Timeline Title
10-05 03:46 Opening
2.03 / 3.28 / 3.64
10-06 18:45
2.43 / 3.00 / 3.15
10-06 18:45 Latest
2.43 / 3.00 / 3.15
16
Record Count
1
Change Count
1
Home Odds Change
0
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
★★★★★

Probability

Of
Comment TitleThe home implied probability decreased noticeably from the opening observation.
History Title
10-05 03:4645.9% / 28.4% / 25.6%Opening
10-06 18:4538.7% / 31.4% / 29.9%No Change
25.635.845.91916Home%Draw%Away%
Timeline Title
10-05 03:46 Opening
45.94%
10-06 18:45 Latest
38.74%
16
Record Count
0
Change Count
-7.20%
Home Prob Cumulative
±2.12%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
No Change

Title

Count Suffix
10-06 17:34
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.19 points to 27.81% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 17:34
🔴Home win prob. down★★★☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 5.08 points to 40.86% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 17:34
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.3 (+13.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-06 17:34
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.64 to 3.38 (-7.1%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-06 16:06
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.22 points to 27.84% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 16:06
🔴Home win prob. down★★★☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 5.03 points to 40.91% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 13:34
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.21 points to 27.83% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 13:34
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 4.32 points to 41.62% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 13:34
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.26 (+11.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-06 12:15
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.22 points to 27.84% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 12:15
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.94 points to 42.0% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 12:15
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.24 (+10.3%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-06 10:22
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.08 points to 27.7% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 10:22
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.64 points to 42.3% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 10:22
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.64 to 3.39 (-6.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-06 10:22
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.22 (+9.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-06 07:42
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.28 points to 42.66% - market probability distribution shifted.
10-06 07:42
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.64 to 3.43 (-5.8%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-06 07:42
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.2 (+8.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-06 04:33
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.64 to 3.5 (-3.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-06 04:33
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.12 (+4.4%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-06 01:32
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.64 to 3.51 (-3.6%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-05 21:41
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.64 to 3.5 (-3.9%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-05 21:41
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.11 (+3.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-05 19:55
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.64 to 3.51 (-3.6%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-05 19:55
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.1 (+3.5%) - market confidence in away side easing.
10-05 16:29
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped from 3.64 to 3.48 (-4.4%) - away side attracting more attention.
10-05 16:29
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Away win odds rose from 2.03 to 2.11 (+3.9%) - market confidence in away side easing.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
10-05 03:46
Opening RecordOpening Short
10-06 13:34
Over Under Over Water UpOver Under
10-06 18:45
Handicap Home Water UpHandicap
10-06 18:45
Europe Home Odds UpEurope

Overview Stats Title

1
Handicap Changes
1
Ou Changes
1
Odds Changes
0
Prob Changes
16
Total Records
2Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
Finished
Monitor Level
Finished
Current Status　·　Kicked Off
Market Heat Change
10-05
10-06
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