Primeira Liga

CD Nacional vs GD Estoril Praia Odds Movement Analysis | Primeira Liga | 168 Tips

CD NacionalCD Nacional
VS
GD Estoril Praia
Opening Record Time Last Update Prefix 2026-08-16 22:31:17
Finished Kicked Off

Snapshot Title

Snapshot Latest
Handicap 0.82 +0.25 1.06
Over Under 0.93 2.5 0.93
Europe 2.85 | 3.26 | 2.45
Probability 32.9% | 28.8% | 38.3%

Signal Summary Title

Market State Title: Market State Moving
Market Consensus Label
Market State Dominant
Three core directional markets show the same away-side direction. Evidence Label: 2.48 → 2.85
Market State Agreement
Aligned
Market State Coverage
Handicap
Market State Evidence
3
Market Signals Title
🔴 Handicap down ★☆☆☆☆🔴 Home price up ★★★★☆🔴 Home win prob. down ★★☆☆☆
Supporting Signals Title
Handicap down0 → +0.252026-08-16 22:31:17★☆☆☆☆Home price up2.48 → 2.852026-08-16 22:31:17★★★★☆Home win prob. down37.34 → 32.922026-08-16 22:31:17★★☆☆☆
Strength Label ★★★★☆ Core market signals point in the same direction. Live Monitoring Label: Finished Time To Kickoff Label: Kicked Off Market State Latest: 2026-08-16 22:31:17

Key Movements Title

5
08-16 22:31Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line08-16 22:07Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line08-16 21:41Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line08-16 20:54Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line08-16 17:52Home price up★★★★☆Key Movement Line
Key Movements View Timeline

Handicap

Of
Comment TitleThe handicap line moved downward by one tier from the prior observation.
History Title
08-11 13:060.86 0 1.02Opening
08-16 22:070.80 +0.25 1.09Down Line
08-16 22:310.82 +0.25 1.06No Change
Timeline Title
08-11 13:06 Opening
0
08-16 22:07
+0.25
08-16 22:31 Latest
+0.25
13
Record Count
1
Change Count
0
Up Count
1
Down Count
Magnitude
★★★★★

Over Under

Of
Comment TitleNo significant total (over/under) movement recorded yet.
History Title
08-11 13:060.89 2.5 0.97Opening
08-16 22:310.93 2.5 0.93No Change
Timeline Title
08-11 13:06 Opening
2.5（0.89 / 0.97）
08-16 22:31 Latest
2.5（0.93 / 0.93）
13
Record Count
0
Change Count
0
Up Count
0
Down Count
Magnitude
No Change

Europe

Of
Comment TitleA noticeable upward change in the home-win price was recorded.
History Title
08-11 13:062.48 / 3.31 / 2.67Opening
08-16 22:312.85 / 3.26 / 2.45No Change
Timeline Title
08-11 13:06 Opening
2.48 / 3.31 / 2.67
08-16 22:31 Latest
2.85 / 3.26 / 2.45
13
Record Count
0
Change Count
0
Home Odds Change
0
Away Odds Change
Magnitude
No Change

Probability

Of
Comment TitleHome implied probability moved down by a small amount.
History Title
08-11 13:0637.3% / 28.0% / 34.7%Opening
08-16 22:3132.9% / 28.8% / 38.3%No Change
Timeline Title
08-11 13:06 Opening
37.34%
08-16 22:31 Latest
32.92%
13
Record Count
0
Change Count
-4.42%
Home Prob Cumulative
±1.53%
Max Single Move
Magnitude
No Change

Title

Count Suffix
08-16 22:31
🟢Away win prob. up★★☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 3.62 points (34.68% to 38.3%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 22:31
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 4.42 points (37.34% to 32.92%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 22:31
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped 2.67 to 2.45 (-8.2%) - market backing away.
08-16 22:31
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.85 (+14.9%) - market cautious on home.
08-16 22:31
🔴Handicap down★★★☆☆
Handicap 0 to -0/0.5, -3 steps (0.75 goals) - away backing rising.
08-16 22:07
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.98 points (34.68% to 37.66%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 22:07
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.85 points (37.34% to 33.49%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 22:07
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped 2.67 to 2.49 (-6.7%) - market backing away.
08-16 22:07
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.8 (+12.9%) - market cautious on home.
08-16 22:07
⚠️Handicap volatile★★★☆☆
Handicap oscillated 3 steps today (low -3 to high 0) - market divergence notable
08-16 21:41
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.7 points (34.68% to 37.38%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 21:41
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.59 points (37.34% to 33.75%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 21:41
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.78 (+12.1%) - market cautious on home.
08-16 21:41
🟢Away price down★★★☆☆
Away win odds dropped 2.67 to 2.51 (-6.0%) - market backing away.
08-16 20:54
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.68 points (34.68% to 37.36%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 20:54
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.37 points (37.34% to 33.97%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 20:54
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.76 (+11.3%) - market cautious on home.
08-16 17:52
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.66 points (34.68% to 37.34%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 17:52
🔴Home win prob. down★★☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 3.26 points (37.34% to 34.08%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 17:52
🔴Home price up★★★★☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.75 (+10.9%) - market cautious on home.
08-16 16:42
🟢Away win prob. up★☆☆☆☆
Away win probability increased by 2.11 points (34.68% to 36.79%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 16:42
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.73 points (37.34% to 34.61%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 16:42
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped 2.67 to 2.55 (-4.5%) - market backing away.
08-16 16:42
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.71 (+9.3%) - market cautious on home.
08-16 13:22
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.64 (+6.5%) - market cautious on home.
08-16 09:59
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped 2.67 to 2.58 (-3.4%) - market backing away.
08-16 00:30
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.0 points (37.34% to 35.34%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-16 00:30
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped 2.67 to 2.57 (-3.8%) - market backing away.
08-15 19:59
🔴Home win prob. down★☆☆☆☆
Home win probability decreased by 2.08 points (37.34% to 35.26%) - probability distribution shifted.
08-15 19:59
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped 2.67 to 2.56 (-4.1%) - market backing away.
08-14 23:14
🔴Home price up★★★☆☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.63 (+6.0%) - market cautious on home.
08-13 16:27
🟢Away price down★★☆☆☆
Away win odds dropped 2.67 to 2.57 (-3.8%) - market backing away.
08-13 16:27
🔴Home price up★★☆☆☆
Home win odds rose 2.48 to 2.59 (+4.4%) - market cautious on home.

Overview Title

Overview All Modules
08-11 13:06
Opening RecordOpening Short
08-16 22:07
Handicap Down LineHandicap

Overview Stats Title

1
Handicap Changes
0
Ou Changes
0
Odds Changes
0
Prob Changes
13
Total Records
6Day Unit
Monitor Days
★★★★★
Market Activity
Finished
Monitor Level
Finished
Current Status　·　Kicked Off
Market Heat Change
08-11
08-13
08-14
08-15
08-16
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